Unstatistik des Monats: “337 Prozent zu warm!”

Das Rheinisch-Westfälische Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) vergibt allmonatlich den Negativ-Preis für die ‘Unstatistik des Monats’. Am 17. Februar 2016 nahm sich das RWI die klimaalarmistische Berichterstattung vor:

337 Prozent zu warm!
Schneekanonen funktionieren nicht mehr. Sonnenbaden im T-Shirt im Wiener Burggarten – die Unstatistik des Monats Februar ist die Berichterstattung der Tageszeitung „Österreich“ und des Wetter-Portals „wetter.at“ vom 7. Februar über den „wärmsten Winter aller Zeiten“. Ein Klimaexperte erklärte, jedes Kind wisse, dass der Ausstoß von Treibhausgasen daran schuld sei. Und die Journalisten hatten eine innovative Idee, die Erwärmung zu messen. Nicht in Celsius, sondern in Prozent: Im Jänner 337 Prozent zu warm! Wie fühlen sich 337 Prozent wärmer an? wetter.at berichtete, dass die übliche Durchschnittstemperatur in Wien im Jänner (deutsch: Januar) 0,8 Grad Celsius sei, während sie in diesem Jahr bei 3,5 Grad lag. Das ist ein Anstieg um 2,7 Grad. Aber auch um 337 Prozent – was dramatischer klingt. Dazu muss man nur 2,7 durch 0,8 teilen. Beschreibt man Veränderungen (egal, ob Anstiege oder Abfälle) in relativen statt absoluten Zahlen, so kann man damit rechnen, dass mehr Menschen beeindruckt sind. Dies haben wir wiederholt im Rahmen der „Unstatistik des Monats“ veranschaulicht, zuletzt anlässlich der Wursthysterie („18% höheres Darmkrebsrisiko“). Aber ein relativer Anstieg ist immer relativ zum Ausgangspunkt. Wenn man in Wien nicht mit Celsius, sondern mit Fahrenheit rechnen würde, wären relative Angaben weniger beeindruckend:

Weiterlesen beim RWI.

Es gibt offenbar auch Wetterfrösche, vor denen mit entsprechenden Schildern gewarnt werden sollte…

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Nun wird es ernst. Eine neue medizinische Studie fand jetzt, dass der größte medizinische Schaden des Klimawandels durch hysterischen Klimaalarm entsteht. Immer mehr Menschen müssen in psychologische Beratung, da sie krassen Visionen zur Klimaapokalypse erliegen. Die Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences (USU) berichteten am 5. April 2016 in einer Pressemitteilung über den großen Psychoschaden, den der Klimaalarmismus anrichtet:

Threat of climate change found to be key psychological and emotional stressor

Climate change is a significant threat to the health of Americans, creating unprecedented health problems in areas where they might not have previously occurred, according to a report released April 4 by the White House.

The report, “The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment,” was developed by the U.S. Global Change Research Program, and outlines the impacts climate change has on human health, including mental health and well-being. Contributing to this report and its findings, were doctors from the Center for the Study of Traumatic Stress at the Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences (USU), to include the center’s director and chair of the USU Department of Psychiatry, Dr. Robert J. Ursano, and assistant chair of the USU Department of Psychiatry, U.S. Public Health Service Cmdr. (Dr.) Joshua Morganstein.

The threat of climate change has been found to be a key psychological and emotional stressor, and consequences can range from minimal stress and distress to clinical disorders, such as anxiety, depression, post-traumatic stress, and suicidal thoughts, according to the report.

Messages from the media as well as public communication about climate change, can affect perceptions of physical and societal risks, consequently affecting mental health and well-being, for example. An estimated 40 percent of Americans report hearing about climate change in the media at least once a month, and about half of Americans reported being worried about climate change in 2015, according to a survey, the report states.
In more extreme cases, such as natural disasters causing injuries and deaths, damaged homes and communities, individuals may experience post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), anxiety disorders, grief, and depression. All of these reactions have the potential to interfere with the individual’s functioning and well-being, according to the report.
The majority of affected people recover over time, although some will develop chronic psychological problems, according to the report. Among those most at risk for poor mental health outcomes are some groups previously shown to suffer high rates of disaster related psychological problems including farmers, immigrants, those with limited mobility, those living in coastal areas, those from Indigenous communities or tribes, and veterans.

Following exposure to Hurricane Katrina, veterans with pre-existing mental illness were at an almost 7 times greater risk for developing any additional mental illness, compared to those veterans without a pre-existing mental illness. Following hurricanes, increased levels of PTSD have been experienced by individuals who report less community support and help from neighbors and others.

Overall, the report continues, those who have been directly affected by a climate- or weather-related disaster are at increased incidence of suicidal thoughts and behaviors. Increases in both suicidal thoughts (from 2.8% to 6.4%) and actual suicidal plans (from 1.0% to 2.5%) were observed in residents 18 months after Hurricane Katrina. Following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, a study of internally displaced women living in temporary housing found reported rates of suicide attempt and completion to be 78.6 times and 14.7 times the regional average, respectively.

Emerging evidence also shows those who are actively involved in climate change adaptation, or mitigation, might experience considerable health and well-being benefits, the report adds. These multiple psychological and environmental benefits do not necessarily minimize distress; however, when people do have distress related to relevant media exposure, or to thinking about climate change, taking action to address the issue can buffer against distress, the report states. Such engagement both addresses the threat and helps manage the emotional responses as people come to terms with—and adjust their understandings and lives in the context of—climate change.

In addition to mental health impacts, the report also outlines the effects of air quality, vector-borne diseases, water-related illnesses and food safety. For more information about the report, visit https://www.health2016.globalchange.gov.

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Bleiben wir kurz noch in den USA. Die HNA versuchte am 6. April 2016 mit fragwürdigem Klimaalarm zu punkten:

USA rechnen mit deutlich mehr Hitzetoten durch Klimawandel
Die USA rechnen als Folge des Klimawandels mit deutlich mehr Hitzetoten im nächsten Jahrzehnt. Das geht aus einer Studie hervor, die die Regierung von Präsident Barack Obama in Washington veröffentlich hat.

In Wahrheit ist jedoch Kälte ein viel größerer Killer, insbesondere wenn man innerhalb kürzester Zeit die Strompreise verdoppelt (siehe “Focus: Im Jahr 2014 gab es in Europa etwa 40.000 Wintertote, weil Millionen von Menschen ihre Stromrechnungen nicht mehr bezahlen konnten“). Das gilt natürlich auch in den USA, wie Sunshine hours am 7. April 2016 richtigstellte:

USA: Heat Kills 9,000 and Cold Kills 144,000

[...] Consider a rigorous study published last year in the journal Lancet that examined temperature-related mortality around the globe. The researchers looked at data on more than 74 million deaths in 384 locations across 13 areas: cold countries like Canada and Sweden, temperate nations like Spain, South Korea and Australia, and subtropical and tropical ones like Brazil and Thailand.

The Lancet researchers found that about 0.5%—half a percent—of all deaths are associated with heat, not only from acute problems like heat stroke, but also increased mortality from cardiac events and dehydration.

But more than 7% of deaths are related to cold—counting hypothermia, as well as increased blood pressure and risk of heart attack that results when the body restricts blood flow in response to frigid temperatures.

In the U.S. about 9,000 people die from heat each year but 144,000 die from cold.

A 2009 paper from the European Union expects that the reduction in cold deaths will definitely outweigh extra heat deaths in the 2020s. Even near the end of the century, in the 2080s, the EU study projects an increase in heat deaths of “between 60,000 and 165,000” and a decrease of cold deaths of “between 60,000 and 250,000.” In other words, the effects will probably balance each other out, but warming could save as many as 85,000 lives each year.

An academic paper published two years ago in Environmental Health Perspectives similarly shows that global warming will lead to a net reduction in deaths in both the U.K. and Australia. In England and Wales today, the authors write, statistics show that heat kills 1,500 people and cold kills 32,000. In the 2080s, they calculate that increased heat will kill an additional 3,500. But they find that cold deaths will drop by 10,000. In Australia the projections suggest 700 more heat deaths but 1,600 fewer cold deaths.

Globally, one estimate of the health effects of climate change, published in 2006 by Ecological Economics, shows 400,000 more respiratory deaths (mostly from heat) by midcentury, but 1.8 million fewer cardiovascular deaths (mostly from cold).

Ganzen Beitrag auf Sunshine hours lesen.

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Und hier noch ein Lesetipp: Falls Sie sich für Wissenschaft allgemein, Energiewende und Atomausstieg interessieren, stöbern Sie doch mal in Willy Marths gut gemachtem Rentnerblog. Es lohnt sich.