Ökonomisch bereinigte Hurrikanschäden in den USA während der letzten 120 Jahre ohne Langzeittrend

Hurrikane richten in Nordamerika alljährlich große Verwüstungen an. Eine Forschergruppe um Jessica Weinkle hat die Entwicklung der Schadenssumen in den USA für die letzten knapp 120 Jahre untersucht und hinsichtlich der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung bereinigt. Dadurch wurden Schäden z.B. zu Beginn des 20. Jahrhunderts vergleichbar mit modernen Schäden. Einen Langzeittrend fanden die Forscher nicht, weder Steigerung noch Abschwächung. Hier der Abstract des Papers, das am 26. November 2018 in nature sustainability erschien:

Normalized hurricane damage in the continental United States 1900–2017
Direct economic losses result when a hurricane encounters an exposed, vulnerable society. A normalization estimates direct economic losses from a historical extreme event if that same event was to occur under contemporary societal conditions. Under the global indicator framework of United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, the reduction of direct economic losses as a proportion of total economic activity is identified as a key indicator of progress in the mitigation of disaster impacts. Understanding loss trends in the context of development can therefore aid in assessing sustainable development. This analysis provides a major update to the leading dataset on normalized US hurricane losses in the continental United States from 1900 to 2017. Over this period, 197 hurricanes resulted in 206 landfalls with about US$2 trillion in normalized (2018) damage, or just under US$17 billion annually. Consistent with observed trends in the frequency and intensity of hurricane landfalls along the continental United States since 1900, the updated normalized loss estimates also show no trend. A more detailed comparison of trends in hurricanes and normalized losses over various periods in the twentieth century to 2017 demonstrates a very high degree of consistency.